Why A/E/C Firms Are RethinkingTheir Business Development Model
The architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) industry is facing a convergence of pressures that haven’t been seen since the early days of the pandemic. Construction spending has stalled. Architecture firm billings have declined for nearly three consecutive years. Buyers of A/E/C services are stretched too thin to entertain non-project-related “check-in” meetings. And new research reveals that how clients prefer to engage with design and construction firms has fundamentally changed.
The question facing firm leaders is no longer whether to adapt their business development approach—it’s how quickly they can retool for a market that rewards precision over persistence.
The Market Headwinds Are Real—and Measurable
The AIA’s January 2026 Consensus Construction Forecast paints a sobering picture. The panel of leading economists is projecting just a 1.0% gain in nonresidential building spending this year, rising to only 2.2% in 2027. Because these figures are not adjusted for inflation, the actual volume of construction is expected to remain flat or decline once rising material and labor costs are factored in.
The commercial sector, once a reliable engine of growth, has been hit especially hard. Office construction spending, when data center activity is excluded, is projected to fall by double digits both this year and next, according to the AIA forecast panel. The national office vacancy rate reached 20.5% at the end of 2025, up from roughly 15% five years ago.
Manufacturing spending, which drove much of the industry’s recent boom, is forecast to decline 3.9% in 2026 and an additional 0.9% in 2027. Even institutional construction—the sector’s relative bright spot—is projected to grow just 2.7% this year, well below the 6% originally anticipated.
Architecture Firm Billings: A Three-Year Slump
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI)—the industry’s leading indicator for future construction activity—has remained in contraction territory for all but three months since October 2022. The December 2025 ABI closed at 48.5, marking every month of 2025 as a decline in billings at architecture firms. The design contracts index has been equally weak, showing 19 consecutive months of decline, meaning there is no evidence that a meaningful upturn in design work is imminent.
Architecture firm leaders surveyed by AIA in late 2025 ranked “increasing firm profitability” and “identifying new clients and markets” as their top concerns for 2026, each cited by 56% of respondents. Competition from other firms also rose as a concern, selected by 15% of leaders, up from 12% the prior year.
Project Delays, Cancellations, and Workforce Shortages
A 2025 survey by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) and Sage found that nearly two-thirds of contractors reported at least one project postponed, scaled back, or cancelled within the previous six months.
The AGC’s separate Workforce Survey of nearly 1,400 firms revealed that 92% of contractors hiring workers are struggling to find qualified candidates, and 45% cite labor shortages as the leading cause of project delays. Tariffs have compounded these challenges: 16% of firms reported project cancellations or postponements tied directly to tariff-driven cost increases, while 41% raised prices and 39% accelerated purchases in anticipation of further tariffs.
The takeaway: this is not a temporary softening. The structural conditions that drive A/E/C business development—new project starts, client confidence, accessible capital—are all under pressure simultaneously.
Buyer Preferences Have Fundamentally Changed
When markets tighten, the instinct at many A/E/C firms is predictable: hire another BD person, attend more conferences, refresh the website. But recent research—including a proprietary Fusion BD survey of end-users such as facilities managers, VPs of Facilities, Directors of Plant Operations, COOs, and CEOs—reveals that these traditional tactics are increasingly misaligned with how buyers actually want to engage.
These findings align with broader B2B trends. Research from multiple sources shows that the average B2B buyer now engages in over 60 touchpoints before making a purchasing decision, spanning six months or more and involving multiple members of a buying committee. In the A/E/C world, this means the traditional cold-call or conference-meet approach captures only a fraction of the decision-making process.
The SMPS Foundation’s AEC.BD research confirms what end-users are telling us: firms that rely heavily on traditional BD roles are seeing diminishing returns. Meanwhile, SMPS Foundation report found that a net 47% of surveyed firms had added both business developers and seller-doers in recent years, suggesting the industry is struggling to create new structures—but hasn’t yet found the right formula.
The SMPS Foundation’s latest Emerging Trends research, conducted in partnership with FMI Consulting, underscores that firms winning work in tighter markets are those investing in client experience, strategic account management, and data-driven pursuit strategies—not simply adding headcount to BD teams.
Elements of the New BD Model
Adapting to this environment requires more than incremental changes. The firms that will thrive through the current downturn and emerge positioned for the eventual recovery are rethinking BD from the ground up.
1. Integrate Account-Based Marketing (ABM) with BD
Account-Based Marketing—a strategy that targets high-value accounts with personalized, coordinated campaigns rather than broad outreach—has become a proven approach in B2B industries. Research shows that organizations using ABM report sales cycles that are up to 28–40% faster, deal close rates that are 35% higher, and significantly improved alignment between sales and marketing teams. According to one industry study, 76% of marketers say ABM delivers a higher ROI than other strategies, and companies with strong ABM programs attribute up to 79% of their opportunities and 73% of total revenue to ABM efforts.
For A/E/C firms, this means replacing scattershot outreach with disciplined pursuit of a defined set of high-potential accounts, supported by marketing intelligence, CRM analytics, and coordinated messaging across every touchpoint.
2. Elevate Principals and Project Leaders into Capture Planning
When 50% of end-users prefer building relationships with principals and project leaders—and only 13% show any preference for dedicated BD staff—the implication is clear. Firms need to reposition their technical leaders as the face of client engagement while empowering marketing teams to handle the operational lift: proposal management, competitive research, marketing automation, and interview preparation.
This model doesn’t add hours to a principal’s day. It redirects existing relationship-building time toward higher-value, strategically selected pursuits—enabling technical leaders to do the work they love while engaging the clients who matter most.
3. Apply AI Practically—Not Aspirationally
AI is transforming B2B marketing and business development across industries. Approximately 84% of B2B marketers now leverage AI and intent data to enhance personalization within their campaigns, and companies integrating AI into their ABM strategies are reporting measurable revenue increases.
For A/E/C firms, the practical applications include market intelligence gathering, partner and subcontractor screening, boilerplate first drafts for proposals, and interview preparation research.
The key is keeping human judgment at the center of strategy and differentiation while letting AI handle the data-intensive groundwork. As the SMPS Foundation’s research notes, firms that blend technology with human-centered strategies—communication, trust-building, and leadership—are the ones winning work now and positioning themselves for the future.
What This Means for Your Firm
The transformation underway in A/E/C business development is structural, not cyclical. The industry is shifting from relationship-driven “rainmaking” to a structured, data-informed, and technology-enabled discipline. Firms that recognize this shift early will gain competitive advantage; those that don’t risk falling further behind as recovery takes hold.
To grow in today’s market, firms need:
• Customized, data-driven strategies tailored to your firm’s specific market position, competitive landscape, and growth goals.
• Proven implementation plans built around how today’s end-users actually evaluate, select, and engage with A/E/C providers.
• Enablement of principals and project managers who efficiently engage clients without adding non-billable hours to their day.
• Reduced non-billable BD costs while achieving better win rates than traditional overhead-heavy BD models.
How to Get There
With 30 years of experience leading A/E/C business development at firms including Haskell, CRB, IMEG, and BSA, I’ve successfully navigated multiple market shifts and know what works—and what doesn’t.
If this information resonates and your firm needs to rethink its BD model, I’d love to connect. No sales pitch. Just three decades of field-tested experience and the latest industry data available to answer your questions.
Email me directly: steven@fusionbdllc.com
Sources: AIA Consensus Construction Forecast (Jan. 2026), AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (2025), AGC/Sage Contractor Survey (2025), AGC/NCCER Workforce Survey (2025), SMPS Foundation / FMI Consulting Emerging Trends Research (2025), Fusion BD End-User Survey, ABM industry research (G2, WebFX, Marketing LTB,
Leader in A/E/C Business Development | Publisher of the 2025 End-User Survey | Implementer of BD/Marketing Alignment I Corporate Trainer I Expert in End-User Engagement • Advisor to A/E/C Principals
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